Latest polls show Biden leading Trump by 6 points :gigabiden!typing:

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1752775226612474145

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1706744248440662.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17067442485225036.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17067442486868875.webp

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17067442488474805.webp

!chuds in shambles

81
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Like normal, this poll comes down to party lines.

Rep: 91% Trump, 7% Biden

Dem: 2% Trump, 96% Biden

Which means the poll depends on their weights for Dem/Rep.

See, they assume there is some population party split like 25% Rep, 40% Dem, and 35% Ind.

Then they do the polling and might gather from the calls something like 35% Rep, 35% Dem, 30% Ind.

Then they say "oopsie, better match up our sample to the population". And weight the Rep answers less and the Dem more to bring it inline.

So like usual, these polls really all depend on what numbers they are using for the party splits at the population level. And there were some really weird ones back in 2016.

Source: Statistician, you can make data say whatever you want. We call it "interrogating the data".

Edit: I would guess they changed their weights with the new year, which prompted the shift.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

loooool cope :marseycopeseethedilate:

Source: A better statistician than you. I bet you got your PhD in bongland or some shithole like that :marseyxd:

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

You sounded smarter as a fake nurse than a fake statistician tbh

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

I never claimed to be a nurse, but do continue coping :marseycopeseethedilate:

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Coping about what?

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

:marseyconfused2:

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Idk u said continue to cope?

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Never said I was a good one. I'm sure the data shows you are better than I.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

I did a snowball sample survey, everyone says I'm the best statistician in my high school :marseyshrug:

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

How long did it take to give everyone a snowball?

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

darn straight

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton's chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 37-yard field goal.

haha holy shit

:#marseysaluteusa:

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

It was still like 90% an hour or 2 before they called it

People hate on 538 but they communicated it better than anyone

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Last 2 polls on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1706760253752246.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17067602540075016.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17067603901233916.webp https://i.rdrama.net/images/17067602542313325.webp

"not sure" is the nooticers best stat :marseyfoidretard: :marseyblacktalking:

Also black people are the only demographic left who still sees Biden as doing a better job than not

Yougov https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_f5kOruS.pdf

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

>they assume some party split

They don't really need to assume, pretty sure party registration is public or you can pay for the lists.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

this poll comes down to party lines.

Brilliant observation, Mr. Silver.

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

My pleasure. That'll be $538 pl0x

Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Link copied to clipboard
Action successful!
Error, please refresh the page and try again.