So actually, who's winning and who's going to win?

I don't know, the more I look at this the more I agree with that saying that there are no victors in war

The way I believe it will end is by just dragging out- it will go on for a year, maybe more, but at some point both sides will start running out of steam. Russia will obviously fold first, but I doubt that they will ever be pushed out completely. Likely some regions will remain under their control and new borders will be established. They will parade it as a successful conclusion of the military operation and that all goals they set out were achieved. We will probably hear similar shit about how we are victorious because we managed to protect Ukrainian national sovereignty despite the fact that the country is in ruins and half of the population lives abroad. It will be a failure for everybody, no matter how you twist it. And while peace or truce may be established on paper, it is certain that the borderland regions will remain in a state of proxy war through frequent terrorist attacks and political manipulation for which no one will claim accountability. Nobody will desire to return home, and with wrecked production and agriculture the country itself is all but defeated. It will take decades to recover as people continue to die from food insecurity, terror attacks and unexploded munition.

This was the best case scenario I see

The worst case scenario, and one I find more likely is that chinks decide to frick around while the west is tired and worn out from the conflict. Then it's WW3 and we all die