@Sasanka_of_Gauda I was wrong
Edit: Egypt willing to use rubles to trade with Russia https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/egypt-plans-use-ruble-trade-russia
Edit 2: Sri Lanka too wants that oil https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/bankrupt-sri-lanka-seeks-discounted-russian-oil/articleshow/92472265.cms
Edit 3: Mongolia also getting that oil https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-mongolia-trade-up-30-looking-to-expand.html/
So is China: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/20/china-oil-imports-from-sanctioned-russia-skyrocket-surpass-saudi
So is India : https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indias-crude-oil-imports-from-russia-jumps-50-times-now-accounts-for-10-of-all-import/
BRICS nations gonna have their own reserve currency : https://think.ing.com/opinions/brics-the-new-name-in-reserve-currencies/
Worst case scenario: Russia economy is in recession for 10 years before getting back to 2021 levels of growth. This is worst case scenario right now. Just as bad as European Union. So not a big deal. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031
Ruble hits 7 year high : https://news.bitcoin.com/ruble-hits-7-year-high-bukele-oleary-unfazed-by-crypto-downturn-elon-musk-will-keep-buying-doge-bitcoin-com-news-week-in-review/
Russian ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-currency-russian-economy-2022/
Boom in Yuan Ruble trade: https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/yuan-ruble-trade-boom-a-wakeup-call-for-biden/
Conclusion: Russian economy is secure as it can shift all it's import needs to China from the west while moving all it's exports to the same nation. It also has increasing trade with Egypt, India, and Mongolia. That's enough countries for a trillion dollar nation to keep rising up in economic terms or at least stay aloft.
The Mongolia, China, Russia integration system is already in play and will likely win out. Russia is safe and can only be cut off from the cutting edge. Beyond that whatever the Chinese develop becomes accessible to the Russians as trade partners. China is already a more developed economy than Russia which means that Russia has constant access to better tech to work with. Sorry westoids but you can only make your club exclusive, but you can no longer stop growth of those outside of the club.
Edit 4: Russian inflation is twice the current rate of US inflation. That is the primary downside. However the Russians are more used to getting economically fricked than the US citizen.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-may-2022-consumer-prices-food-and-gas-rcna32774
Edit 5 : Russia finally defaults on it's debts after getting away with it for months at the last second. As per article - " But given the damage already done to the economy and markets, the default is also mostly symbolic for now", so trade with China continues as normal. Debt defaults matter when neutral countries have to decide whether they want to invest in you or not. Countries that favor you will invest in you irrespective of debt status as per my understanding. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918/articleshow/92479426.cms
Edit 6: Russia still in a position to turn Ukraine into a crater on the Earth if it goes full artillery strikes don't care about the cities or infrastructure mode. https://eurasiantimes.com/russias-200-year-old-artillery-first-doctrine-that-devastated-ukraine/
Russia supplying Belarus with more weapons systems thus guaranteeing an ally right inside the EU that is hostile to the west and is now better armed. https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-will-supply-belarus-with-missile-systems-capable-of-carrying-nuclear-weapons-491833
Ukraine says missile attack came from Belarus which means things just got worse for Ukraine getting even more surrounded. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-reports-massive-attack-from-belarus-3100041
Russia achieved one of it's key strategic goals when it took over severodonetsk completely. So far they aren't losing just getting extremely slowed down. They still have the bodies to throw though. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61945914
Serbia still close enough to Russia to secure new gas deals with them well into the war. That's two hostile to the EU players in the west. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/29/serbia-ignores-eu-sanctions-secures-gas-deal-with-putin
Even Turkey is neutral to Russia. https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/turkey-defends-its-neutral-stance-on-kyiv-says-sanctioning-russia-to-harm-its-economy-articleshow.html
Hungary continuing to oppose Russian oil bans and other sanction measures taken by the EU. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/eu-to-discuss-watered-down-oil-embargo-on-russia-as-hungary-holds-firm.html
Russia is still active in Syria participating in military drills there which shows that the west did not even succeed in their goal of getting the Russians to leave Syria even in the middle of a devastating ongoing war. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/06/26/Syrian-and-Russian-paratroopers-conduct-joint-military-drill
Conclusion 2: Russia is not isolated at all currently. It has only been kicked out of the US and European Union main markets. Beyond that it is still well connected to the rest of the middling economies of the world and holds great sway there, well enough to continue to thrive in the long run.
The final question then is will Russia win in Ukraine in a long all out war, and the answer is likely yes if their economy cannot be fully crashed but only slowed down. Russia will just keep importing more people from Belarus even if the population begins to collapse.
Edit 7: @genuineloicensed this is not an agendapost you are a shit reporter if you checked my history you would know I post both for an against on various issues. I have no side thus I cannot agendapost go frick yourself you biased ninny.
@JewTwo I am not an AI I am a very smart and good looking human whose competencies can be mistaken as superhuman AI or demigod equivalents to normies such as yourself. Have faith, I am not above the people, just better than them.
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I wouldn't worry about this, according to Western sources and Le genius Pizzashill, Russia will be bankrupt any minute now.........any minute now.........any minute now........
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I'm not delusional enough to think this is going to end well for Ukraine. But at the same time look how little progress Russia made from June 1st to June 23rd. This war is going nowhere at the moment
Sorry Igor, but it's true. You guys kinda suck at warfare
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Most maps are made up of large area of empty land. Russia just finished with severodontsk, has now moved on to another city lysydensk or something like that it's called. It is very possible that Russia instead of doing a wide march is doing a focused hold land and expand city by city setup. Which while slower still makes it impossible for the Ukrainians to reclaim land and leaves them on a permanent slow backfoot while their economy continues to be crippled. Ukraine doesn't even have much armaments anymore and is completely dependent on the west to even keep going at the moment. Troop accumulations are taking place in the Zaporizhia region by Russia which makes the most sense based on the current map.
I think Russia can produce dumb munitions for pretty much forever so they do not need to worry about running out of weapons either. In terms of troops it is at least an equal match to Ukrainian total national numbers so again it's a long term stalemate with Russia moving forward at a seemingly glacial rate.
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BIG cope
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show me on the map where Ukraine reclaimed territories.
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I don't give a shit about Ukraine lol, I'm just saying Russia is incompetent
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wrong
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Everything north of Kyiv...
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So nothing on the east then. As expected.
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and then once Bernie wins New York we'll finally be close to catching up in superdelegates
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the delegates?
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Nono you see, it is not a military invasion.
It's not warfare.
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That's a cope. They're doing positional warfare grinding opponents out, yeah. Taking (fortified) cities and causing casualties so fricking insane that even Ukros are now admitting that they're a bit too much. Once the frontline breaks, the pace of the offensive will be more up to your liking, I guess...
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Im sure theyll take kiev in two weeks
This time for real for real, though
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Not claiming that. They have NATOids doing everything but actually sending their units to fight (they are sending individual soldiers and officers, though). Of course it will take a bit. But it's clearly progressing and the enemy is losing everything that matters. Do you think they can last forever without trained personnel?
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Isn't NATO also accepting Ukrainian troops for training purposes though before sending them back to the front lines?
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Yeah, but that's been going on even before the war.
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true, but it's a serious power multiplier historically.
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Not anywhere near enough to compensate for the losses they're suffering. Look at the figures - they train like 200 every couple of weeks. They lose more than that daily...
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Cope harder Russkie. The real tragedy of the Eastern Front was that there were survivors.
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Hahaha, this is my favourite vatnik cope.
Can't beat Ukraine, a third tier country. Ooo, big scary!! Ha
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It's pretty certainly going to be a pyrric victory. Few people think Russia is truly incapable of taking Ukraine, but th price is going to be high on a country that doesn't have the demographics to absurb it. This is the Russian population pyramid. Notice how it is not shaped like a pyramid? They're already going through a pretty difficult bulge as a generation retires and transitions from their peak productivity of puting value into the economy to taking value out of the economy in retirement. In 30 years when that second bulge hits retirement the Russian empire will be finished. Old people will die in droves in the street with no one to take care of them.
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Bruh Russia has a pop of 130m, 5% of that(20-30 range) is 6.5m males, of that even if they lose 60k by war's end that's 1% of that whole age cohort. Nothing demographically significant. And they got 1 million refugees from Ukraine alone.
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The collapse is coming either way, this is just wasting effort that could be put into preparing for it.
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Putler will do it desu
Trust the plan.
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20.3? Surely that's a typo. But it's pretty much too late to avoid catastrophe. Having a lot of kids right now would help but there's going to be a heck of a buldge either way.
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Consumption removes "value" from the economy.
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Consumption requires someone else to produce value. There are complicated ways to model ways in which increased consumption can stimulate production but we can step back from complicated modeling and just look at the bare metal here. In the next 10 years the number of people too old to really work in Russia is going to skyrocket at the same time the number of people of working age, specifically those with the most experience, are going to be greatly reduced. Much more of the productive capacity of the nation is going to go into caring for old people leaving less productive capacity to go elsewhere in the economy. This next hump will probably cause economic trouble, the one after it will cause ruin.
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And they did. Savings / investment is deferred consumption. Sorry, chud.
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By that logic they've already produced the beneficial portion of their consumption and have left society in their debt. Then we can simply model this as the bad situation if lots of debt coming due during a liquidity crunch.
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No, that doesn't follow. Savings is literally deferred consumption, by definition. You have wealth but you don't consume it now, so what other option is there? One. You save it, and eventually it's sold for what reason? Consumption.
Value is created during an exchange. Just because you're old, and you sell some assets to pay bills and groceries, it doesn't mean no value was created.
What are you smoking?
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I know how retirement works, I'm describing population level economics. Money is only as good as the goods and services it can be exchanged for. If you double the number of people consuming services and half the number of people producing them what do you think happens to the price of all services? If savings are denominated in rubles or whatever and the price of everything skyrockets relatives to the ruble what do you think happens to this "deferred compensation"?
I'm telling you that the normal individual model of save during working age to support yourself in retirement can and will be disrupted from grander economic trends. This is very obvious if you consider it on a smaller scale.
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I yield to the economically ignorant. Good day, sir.
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Isnβt it like this everywhere?
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US is actually in a much better position because of immigration. Still some buldge and tapering but not as extreme.
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