Global IQ growth is down all the way to 1.8 per decade in the 1986-2020 period.

BRICS nations showed the greatest gains in IQ over time in recent decades, at 2.9 IQ points per decade.

Developed nation states are still growing at an average of 2 IQ points per decade.

The poorest nation states are showing the slowest gains in IQ, even slower than developed economies.

The poorest nation states are getting ever further left behind. It might actually be impossible to recover them if the current trends continue. Sub Saharan Africa might actually be unsalvageable.

Global economic growth rate, global population growth, global IQ gains, and global innovation are all slowing down decade on decade. Humanity is moving towards a peak beyond which it cannot grow. The poorest nation states are getting ever further left behind.

The East Asians are currently the smartest people on the planet. Their demographics are collapsing however. The only way ahead might be to mix the genetics of East Asians with the Americans to create the next level of superior humans.

Assuming a lifespan of 80 years for the average person, globally, your grandkid will be 14.4 IQ points smarter than you, or one deviation smarter than you.

Conclusion:

We can expect the world to become scary smart compared to the present every century.

We can also expect global GDP to keep doubling every century after the Chinese and US economic stagnation event hits.

The world will continue to slow down, there is no way around it.

( Exception possibility - genetic alteration of all newborns in the future )

!ifrickinglovescience

Key points:

1. Research productivity levels are down compared to the 70's

2. Number of disruptive discoveries is decreasing over time

3. Most new research seems to be more about studying already discovered knowledge rather than making new discoveries

Conclusion:

Global innovation peak is behind us, the world and new inventions are only going to keep slowing down over time. We are moving ever further from the golden era. We are going to keep moving from one revolutionary innovation in a decade to one in 1.5 decades to one in 2 decades and so on and so forth.

Second part of the conclusion:

This slowdown in innovation should apply to the US as well. Which means that over time the US GDP growth rate will also slow down decade by decade irrespective of what it does in the future. Which means we are reaching the limits of American innovation and the future is either going to be a near stagnant system with the US on top, or a new emergent system that replaces the US ( Most likely candidate is East Asia with its 10 points higher IQ )

Just go to the technology subreddit and you would be lucky to find one article about actual machines and hardware out of the top 20 or 30 posts there on any given day.

The only cool hardware side things that are happening are SpaceX starship and the humanoid robots that have begun to be added to factories.

Software side is just not as exciting because you can make things faster or more colorful with it, but you aren't really creating any new capabilities.

Wow my game runs smoother without the battery heating up vs wow we now have ships that can take us back to the moon.

Even AI is beginning to hit this snag as developing more and more powerful AI requires higher and higher hardware and energy requirements to be fulfilled to store and process all that data. This has limited AI development to the top companies in the world who already have access to billions of dollars to fund the AI projects, thus keeping everybody else out.

The last few innovative technologies I know of were:

1. Self driving cars

2. Drones

3. robot dogs

4. Roombas

5. Humanoid factory robots

6. Spaceships.

7. VR

8. Air fryers

That's it. All technologies that take decades to mature and become commonly available product.

On the software side on the other hand we are doubling or tripling something every year or two, but by the end of the day it is just a further iteration of what was already there. Nothing truly novel is coming out of it.

The world has slowed down in terms of offering new things.

We have less physical things than ever before meanwhile software keeps going up. It feels pointless.

No new generation of trains. No new jets. No new cities. No new world record breaking infrastructure. Just more software. software. software.

We have enough software. We have enough services. Give actual product now.

Compared to software upgrades, hardware is moving at a snail's pace. It is what is holding the world back, the fact that all the money has gone into making digital pixels work more efficiently over making an actually innovative new product.

It took 30-40 years for the US military to replace its rifle. That's how slow the hardware side is currently, and it feels like it's only getting slower over time.

Everybody went all in on big data, and now nothing is left for the new product side of things.

We have had the same tallest sky scraper in the world for 14 years now. Nobody has built anything taller in 14 years. That's embarrassingly slow.

On the other hand you currently have two models of the iphone releasing every year. It's ridiculous.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_megaprojects#Water-related

Look at this crap. Every project takes like a decade on average. To notice any major difference in your city you would have to be there for a decade at least. Meanwhile you get 20 different iphones in that same time span. It's ridiculous how little advancement we have made in speeding up physical projects.

Physically the world is moving too slow. In terms of human intelligence growth, the world is moving too slow. Only software is moving at the speed of light now.

The world isn't even going to feel different until 2035 now. Global geopolitical events are moving faster than hardware evolution right now. That's how slow the shitshow is.

GTA VI took 12 years to release after GTA V. The numbers don't make any sense anymore. We are stuck at the top and the only fruit lying around anymore is at the highest branches.

if you grafted an ovary into them they would spontaneously develop a monthly cycle but straight men would not, because their brains don't produce luteinizing hormone in response to estrogen like women and gay men do.

"As an increased amount of estradiol is released from the ovaries during the first half of the menstrual-estrus cycle, eventually an LH surge is triggered by the hypothalamic-pituitary network. This surge inhibits further estradiol production and induces ovulation and increased progesterone release, which, in turn, eventually causes estradiol production to also gradually rise, and thus the cycle starts over again. The entire process can be manipulated in most females merely by injecting high levels of estradiol. In the male, however, the hypothalamic-pituitary network is usually organized in such a way as to prevent major estradiol-induced LH surges."

https://t3uncoupled.substack.com/p/homosexuality-as-a-symptom-of-metabolic

Wow. This is apparently what was supposed to be a STATIC FIRE TEST today of a Tianlong-3 first stage by China's Space Pioneer. That's catastrophic, not static. Firm was targeting an orbital launch in the coming months. https://t.co/BY9MgJeE7A pic.twitter.com/L6ronwLW1N

— Andrew Jones (@AJ_FI) June 30, 2024

!spacechads !asians

Note: I am not an economist so you are welcome to educate me.

This applies to the growth of the GDP of all nation states.

The more people there are, the larger the market to sell to. The richer people are, the more things they can buy.

These two factors taken together help grow the GDP year on year.

This is why the US is focused on two things:

1. Constantly growing its population

2. Constantly investing in developing economies.

There is a third factor that impacts GDP growth and that is product competition from other nation states. If every nation state produced the same product there would be an oversupply and GDP growth would slow down as most of the product wouldn't be sold.

All nation states grow their GDP by figuring out niche areas where they can sell a product better than the other nation state.

A fourth factor that impacts GDP is the intelligence of the population. The smarter a population is, the more advanced products it can create, the more advanced products it creates, the higher the value of the product thus creating a further increase in GDP.

This is why nation states like South Korea and Japan are so strongly focused on educating their populace and have such strict competitive exams.

Countries which have a shrinking population lose one key advantage, their internal market begins to shrink so they cannot sell as much product. The only way for them to increase their GDP is to keep increasing exports. These nation states become completely dependent on external markets to grow their GDP and thus lose their independence.

Today, there is strong product competition between the US and China when it comes to high end technologies, where the US has a preference of being the single provider of these products. As China gets closer to reaching the technological capabilities of the US, we find that the high end products where both the nation states can make the product drops in price due to increased competition. For example - solar panels. Space transportation costs.

In terms of intelligence the East Asians are the smartest which allows them to create niche market specializations to keep their economies running. For example - South Korea Samsung. Japan Anime. Chinese solar panels.

There is one problem however, the whole world can be supplied with only so much product. This is because a single human can only consume so much in one lifetime.

This is why we see that constantly growing economies also have an ever increasing consumerist culture, as that is the only remaining way to sell more product, and keep the GDP growing, by turning people into consumption zombies.

Globally, logic dictates that over time there will be a product supply saturation point, where the nation states left the furthest behind cannot enter any of the further developed markets globally due to them already having reached market equilibrium. We can already see this in the case of Africa, where many of the nation states are able to grow only because of other developed economies moving their battery farms or other equivalent product there.

In simple terms, the longer a nation state remains behind in the global market, the harder it becomes for it to move forward.

Globalization primarily benefits nation states with large populations as free trade permits them to provide more products in their internal market and the added competition helps grow innovation and the GDP further.

Small nation states are overwhelmed by the supply of products from the rest of the world and their internal markets are unable to keep up and grow in any meaningful manner. This also applies to poor nation states irrespective of population.

In the 21st century the main beneficiary of globalization is the US, as its rate of innovation and new product design is high enough that it can keep selling more new product both in its internal market and external markets at all times.

The US has reached the point of saturation where the only way for it to keep growing at a healthy rate would be for it to actively compete in trade wars with other nation states and to take over the niche markets of other nation states.

For example - All the markets where the US out competed Europe.

Similarly, the only way for China to keep growing its GDP with a shrinking population, and already being a middle level product creator, is to shift towards high end product design and sales, which ends up with it competing with the US in a saturated market where developed economies only need a single version of a product to be mass purchased for use across Multi national corporations and research centers, and among the rich.

Conclusion:

China and US are currently competing for a market niche that is not large enough to have two nation states provide the product. One of them is going to lose their dominance in the sale of high end products.

The US is moving towards dominating the traditional economic niches of other nation states. For example - funding developing cutting edge microchip development domestically, which was previously done by Taiwan. Attempts at using lab grown meats and vertical farming to increase agricultural output. Automation to continuously reduce prices of products so as to keep them competitive in the global market.

Africa is too far behind to ever be able to take up a large chunk of the global market due to the areas ahead already being too saturated by all the other nation states.

I thought he had retired? He isn't even innovating or leading anything special last I checked and his primary hobby appears to be to sue spaceX whenever he gets the chance. So why is his net worth 214.5 billion USD while Elon Musk is barely ahead with 221.2 Billion USD?

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#67e46d1d3d78

Honestly, I can't see Jeff being worth more than 160 Billion USD at best.

At least Bernard Arnault is about to fall out of the top 3 so only Americans will be in the top 3.

Logically the top 10 richest people in the world should be all Americans. It's strange that a Frenchman is up there.

When Elon Musk's net worth crosses 300 billion USD will Jeff Bezos be able to keep up?

Explain your beliefs

How does infinite economy growth even work, especially when the economic growth is supposed to be compound in nature.

In a compound growth system every next percent would be harder to reach than the previous percent of growth, as the total quantities to gain would be higher each time.

This is made worse in systems where population growth is slower than GDP growth rate, such that every next 1% of GDP growth has to be split between more people having to life heavier loads each year.

Infinite growth is just not possible from a rational point of view, yet we treat the economic systems like it is.

Even the US has had its GDP growth declining decade on decade over time.

It appears to be a logical conclusion that dumber nation states with lower IQs would hit the ceiling on how much they can grow their economy per capita far faster than nation states with higher intelligence, size, resource, access, or innovation.

Japan for example, is a nation state running purely on innovation, with its economic growth permanently stuck in a state of stagnation due to population loss making it even harder to acquire that next 1% of growth.

Only the US appears to be keeping up for now as megacorporations are able to optimize resources far better than nation states ( They don't have homeless corporate members to take care of, nor do they have to pay for a military to protect its borders ).

Megacorporations in this regard appear to be the logical conclusion to ensure continual economic growth as the compound economic growth challenges stack up year on year.

Yet, Japan has the second highest number of Multi National Corporations in the world, and it has not been enough to ensure Japan's economic prosperity.

So even in that regard there are limits to what megacorporations can do. Which means that logically multinational corporations GDP growth would also slow down over time as year on year growth becomes ever more difficult.

The constant development of new industries appears to be the one way out of this economic decline, but even so every decade the number of new industries that would have to evolve to keep the economy growing stacks up over time.

Today the US has 6 trillion dollar companies and it is barely enough to keep things going well.

Only the insane rate of US innovation is keeping it going for now.

Human intelligence is linear however, which would suggest that a point comes where the only way to keep growing would be to increase the use of AI and robotics in the economy, which are the two industries well positioned to grow exponentially and maintain the steady economic growth rate well into the future.

In the end we are hit with the question, can a system be infinitely optimized, and on the face of it, the answer feels like no, it cannot.

In the end it is reasonable to assume that nation states that do not have the resourcefulness of the US are going to stagnate far before the US. As was the case for Japan, and will be the case for South Korea.

Any system that wishes to replace the US will have to be more efficient and better optimized than the US, there is no way around that.

MNCs are the latest state of optimizing economic systems for further growth once they reach their natural limits without MNCs.

Thus, any nation state that wishes to replace the US will need to have more MNCs than the US.

China cannot replace the US as its economic systems are not as well optimized as those of the US.

Similarly to how South Korean hypercapitalism beats Japanese capitalism, US MNC oriented capitalism beats Chinese middle path to wealth systems.

Conclusion:

The future of humanity and global economic boom will stop wherever the US economic growth stops. The system will stagnate at that peak for a century or two at the least. China nor India are well positioned to replace the US at the next biggest economy in the world leading the global world order.

The good news is that the US could eek out two to three trillion USD out of the AI industry. Another two to three trillion from the space industry, and another two to three trillion from the space industry.

After that? There is no new mineral node to tap into. There is a limit on the number of new trillion dollar industries that could emerge this century.

The US could spend more money on FDIs across the world which would further set it up to keep growing for another two decades but no longer, as the US is tapping out all the economies across the world already to feed itself, with India, Mexico, Indonesia, and Vietnam as the newest economies to sustain itself, and no other replacements available of a similar size in the future.

Conclusion:

The US has 20-40 years of economic growth remaining ahead of it after which it too would fall into developed economy tier of GDP growth. This would herald the end of the age of global economic prosperity and the stagnation of half the planet as they have no capability to grow any further. Expansionism would become the final method of global growth once again, with a techno feudal future ahead of us. Everybody has a good quality of life, but nobody can move up the ladder naturally.

Technology is growing at a rapid rate far faster than the human capacity to grow in intelligence.

Today there are no longer any inventions or creations that a single person could make that would push forward the field of science.

Most of the important research is happening through private corporations with thousands of geniuses working together towards the same goal.

With the advent of AI development we have optimized the research process to not even require that many humans and be far faster than the humans running the process.

The only way to keep up would be the genetic engineering and upgrading of human information processing capabilities.

Otherwise we would as a species get left behind our own technologies which would grow at a far more rapid rate than human intelligence itself.

Human IQ increases around 2 points per decade.

Human technology on the other hand improves at a far faster rate. For example - 5g is supposed to be 10 times faster than 4g.

That's a 10x improvement in a decade. Human intelligence would have grown by 2 iq points in the same time period.

https://time.com/6300942/ai-progress-charts/

It's equally bad in the AI realm, where AI intelligence is growing hundreds to thousands of times faster than human learning rates.

In conclusion:

In the future humans have no choice but to be genetically engineered to be able to keep up with the technologies they have created and to be able to compete in the global market.

1. "Star Wars was about Antifa in SPACE!"

2.

3. "boring cishets" "easy with the slurs there, buddy"

4. D&D went woke?

5. "there is no gate, it's within your mind" "I completely agree" "I completely disagree"

6. "I tried to warn you, anime is next!" " "

7. "media literacy "

Wouldn't it be hilarious if Tesla becomes one of the top 10 highest market cap companies in the world? It would make Redditors seethe so much.

The highest a billionaire's net worth has ever gotten is that one time with Bernard Arnault and family reaching 233 billion. Pretty confident Elon will break that high score by the end of the year easily.

At this rate Elon Musk will be keeping aloft America all by himself opening a new company every decade.

What's next for Elon Musk.

Fun fact: Elon Musk has 12 children now.

It is safe to say that at least one of them could replace him as another Elon Musk for the next generation.

Bets on his total number of kids crossing 20 before he dies.

The peak of the UK share of world GDP was in 1870 at around 24.28%.

During the existence of the UK/ British empire, other empires on the world map were ( 1900 data ):

The Russian empire

The second French colonial empire

The Spanish Empire

The empire of Japan

Second Portuguese empire

( Others )

Today, The US, the replacement of the British Empire, controls 25% of world GDP.

China can be said to have replaced the Russian empire.

The EU acting as the replacement for the French Colonial empire.

Brazil can be considered the replacement of the second Portuguese empire.

This leaves out replacements that haven't filled in the vacuum for the Spanish empire and the Empire of Japan, with the closest replacement being ASEAN which is only an economic union with no teeth in any other sphere.

The world altogether is too large for the current number of empire equivalents to be able to control all of it, which leaves out a vacuum that still needs filling.

One can expect the emergence of a new major player or the expansion of Brazil in South America, alongside the rise of two empires proper in Africa, one empire in central Asia, and one empire in the middle east.

This is due to the existence of power vacuums in these territories, with none of the other empires able to exert complete influence in these territories, leaving them free to reintegrate into new systems of governance.

We can expect these empires to rise to fill in the power vacuums in these territories within the century, with Saudi Arabia in the middle east, and Kazakhstan or Mongolia in central Asia.

Just like how China arose as a new player on the board in the 21st century, and India is expected to rise quite a way far up in the coming decades, there are more players that will rise up in their regions and dominate as well, due to the natural accumulation of wealth towards the top in stable human territorial systems.

The empires of the previous century only broke down due to competition from other empires. In stable systems key players naturally arise over time. The lions could not reach all the way to India, so the Tigers emerged there as the apex predator. The same principle applies.

All nation states are evolving into a competition between regional nation states with one dominating. The next step after regional dominance becomes one for global hegemony.

Today, the nation state that is rising up to be the dominant player in its territory is Brazil in South America ( It's share of South America's GDP is continually on the rise ) and India ( Whose share of South Asia's GDP is more than 80%), similarly China is close to reaching the 80%+ mark for its share of GDP in East Asia which would make it the dominant regional player, and EU almost at the cusp of crossing 80% of the GDP share of Europe.

Once these territories completely dominate their regions, the only way forward left for them is to compete with other major regional players from around the world.

That is, territorial/ influence expansion.

We can see this with the ever eastwards expansion of the EU. The global trade expansion of China and India, and the resurgence of the Brazilian economy and influence over South America.

Conclusion:

The world is moving towards developing multiple manifest destiny nation states moving on the path of cultural conflicts with one another over time resulting in the expansion and collapse of empires similar to what occurred during WW1 and WW2.

American culture, vs European culture, vs Chinese culture, vs Indian culture, vs South American culture.

To see whether estrus was really "lost" during human evolution (as researchers often claim), we examined ovulatory cycle effects on tip earnings by professional lap dancers working in gentlemen's clubs. Eighteen dancers recorded their menstrual periods, work shifts, and tip earnings for 60 days on a study web site. A mixed-model analysis of 296 work shifts (representing about 5300 lap dances) showed an interaction between cycle phase and hormonal contraception use. Normally cycling participants earned about US$335 per 5-h shift during estrus, US$260 per shift during the luteal phase, and US$185 per shift during menstruation. By contrast, participants using contraceptive pills showed no estrous earnings peak. These results constitute the first direct economic evidence for the existence and importance of estrus in contemporary human females, in a real-world work setting. These results have clear implications for human evolution, sexuality, and economics.

!chuds

!codecels

We are only seeing something truly impressive and society altering every once in a decade.

The Iphone and youtube were the 2000s

4g, apple watch, ridesharing, and crispr where 2010s

AI reaching human level intelligence and starship rocket will be 2020's

Moon base will be 2030s.

We are a species whose brains have been dopamine boosted to the point of expecting great changes every single year but technological innovation is still moving at a rate of once every decade noticeable improvements.

The world is moving too slow for the human mind to feel satisfied.

That is what is causing that sense of misery even as the quality of life keeps going up.

Humanity has become an absurd caricature of itself and the only way this works out is if there is a bottom class to do all the hard work to keep improving the quality of life of everybody else.

It is human nature to desire slaves, because the growth that a man desires cannot be achieved without sacrificing everything else, unless you are having somebody else making all of the sacrifices.

The US is the only nation state that managed to optimize growth to be always consistent at around 2.5% per year average.

Any developed society trying to force itself above this mark would more likely than not collapse, going mad being overworked to keep profits up.

Even the 2.5% growth forever is not sustainable as population grows at a slower rate than GDP, so every .1% of the 2.5% next year has to be reached with ever fewer ratio of people.

For example. you start with 100 people and 100 resources. 100 people grow by 1%. that's 101 people. 100 people grow economy by 2.5%. thats 102.5 resources.

Now 101 people have to grow 102.5 resources by 2.5%. That's fewer people having to create increased growth when population grows slower than economic growth rate.

If we start with 100 people and 100 resources, then in 50 years, 164.46 people would have to grow 343. 71 resources by 2.5%.

In the long run it was never going to be sustainable.

Currently the US population growth rate is even worse than the example at 0.4% with a 2.5% GDP growth rate.

It is not a sustainable model and having something more advanced than a human is the only way to keep this growth rate going for centuries to come.

Which is why the future lies in the hands of AI. Current systems have already become complex enough that no single human or even team of humans can by themselves keep growing things consistently anymore.

This is why we can see that the leading companies in terms of market capitalization today are all technology companies. Only innovation at breakneck speeds can lead to further growth and prosperity.

Even companies like Saudi Aramco are going down year on year.

In conclusion:

AI and robot labor is the next step in keeping GDP growth at 2.5% and above year on year for the next century or two.

China will not be able to overtake the US as their individual productivity levels will have to grow year on year at levels even more unsustainable than the US without the same lead in AI or robotics.

The US is surprisingly behind in semiconductor manufacturing and made the right decision by shifting Taiwanese factories to the US. One of the key security areas for the US would be to develop their domestic chip manufacturing capabilities to levels capable of competing with Taiwan.

Some r-slurs published a really shitty version of a paper I was writing. It even got into a pretty good journal too. How do I ?

!math !codecels

This is frickin hilarious, someone high up at albanese is a big military nerd because the only non-standard gummies they sell are these and gummy toy soldiers

North is the operative word here

51d latitude here, plenty of heat domes, floods, harsh freezes, massive forest fires. Canada and particularly further North is one of the areas hardest hit by climate change ... so far, lots of fresh water though. Yay.

That was true when the poles were frozen, I would venture to say that altitude is more important than longitude or latitude at this point.

Florida because climate change is illegal there.

Ahh nice refreshing waves coming through the neighbors old house, and to think of the property value now cause last year It wasn't beachfront property. I wonder what home insurance companies call the new increased fee's - wave liquification of property? annual sea level raise fee?

Florida dumb amerite?

Can we make a distinction between "habitable" and "desirable?" Sure, it's possible to survive just about anywhere. That doesn't mean that, given the opportunity, people who live in places that are miserably cold, hot, humid, flood-prone, dry, etc. would not GTFO. My fear is that my property in a hot, dry place will be so undesirable in 20 years that I won't be able to afford to pack up and move someplace less depressing. Definitely a first-world problem! 6+ months of lethal heat outdoors, a failing electrical grid, and dwindling drinking water is grim.

Well, at least this one is more realistic

10 years, easily most, if not all of the northern US and Canada. Wouldn't put any bets on 2040 and beyond though...

Lmao, some people unironically believe the “world will end in 10 years”. Let's check his profile

>r/collapse, /r/australian, /r/canadiansoccer, /r/alberta, /r/canadianhousing, /r/nicaragua, /r/australia

!ifrickinglovescience !physics

That would explain why nation states like China and Japan, even though they are smarter than the modern day US, are doing worse than the US. They haven't had as much time to optimize their societies for the area their nation covers and the lifestyles they live.

The US has existed in its current form since 1787 ( Delaware, last state to join the union ). That's 237 years to optimize the same land area.

Modern Japan historically came to be in 1868, which gives it 156 years to optimize itself. Although I would argue that Japan was completely changed after WW2 where they had to surrender their territories that were considered part of the Japanese empire outside of Japan. Which makes it 67 years to optimize itself.

The republic of China was founded in 1912. That's 112 years to optimize itself. However, it took over Tibet in 1951 which is a big enough piece of land to count as a major change in its territory that it has to work over. Which makes it 73 years. 1949 when the Chinese government fled to Taiwan which makes it 75 years.

India gained its independence in 1947. That's 77 years.

Stability leads to growth when it isn't leading to stagnation.

The US is the only place that has had the chance to be stable for as long as it has at its current size.

The fact that even with that large a time gap, the US isn't centuries ahead of the rest of the world suggests that the US has actually been underperforming taking all of its advantages into account.

The modern Chinese state has existed for half as long as the US and already crossed it in terms of PPP GDP.

China has 4x the population of the US, and a higher IQ.

China taking into account that it is half the age of the US, has been growing at a rate of more than 3x compared to the US since its inception to be able to keep up.

Even now the Chinese economy continues to grow at a more rapid rate than the US.

Given enough time the Chinese would obviously outgrow the US, being smarter than them long enough would accumulate the benefits.

The primary challenge that persists for the US is that the population of China is too high compared to that of the US.

The average Chinese is smarter than the average American. The average Chinese needs to be only 1/4th as efficient as the average American to surpass their economy. The Chinese economy is not 1/4th as efficient though, it is far more efficient than that even if not as efficient as the US economy.

China will naturally surpass the US if both the entities maintain their current form, given enough time there is no doubt about that.

The disadvantage over the long run exists for the US as it has to remain 2x more competitive than the Chinese at the end of the century even when taking population loss into account.

Conclusion:

The only solution for the US to remain a future global hegemony is to form a larger union. The average Chinese is well on his way to be more competent than the average European. The US could maintain a 10-15% performance lead over the Chinese into the next century but it is not possible for them to remain two times more productive than the Chinese for that long as the Chinese intellectual competence accumulates over time.

China is guaranteed to overtake the US by 2100 at most if the US does not become an expansionist empire.

Technologically the Chinese are catching up at a speedrun pace.

https://international.la-croix.com/world/objective-moon-china-is-20-to-30-years-behind-the-united-states

Even with all the current disadvantages, we can expect a 1.5x growth advantage in favor of China vs US.

That's easily enough for China to cross the US by the end of the century in terms of nominal GDP.

The US has no choice but to increase immigration and to expand its territories this century to maintain its position as global number 1.

Conclusion 2:

North American Union formed before 2100 to be able to keep ahead of China.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/semiconductor-manufacturing-by-country

Those countries are Japan, Taiwan, US, China, Germany, South Korea, UK, Malaysia, Netherlands, Israel.

The semiconductor industry started in 1960. That means the rest of the world is technologically more than 80 years behind these nation states.

The whole world today relies on technology to keep scaling up capability but relevant technologies needed to run society have their production limited to very few nation states with the necessary specialization. Most of the world is incapable of running a modern day society if global trade stopped.

The fact that China can produce its own semiconductors makes it one of the most advanced societies in the world. Making it relevant on the world stage for centuries to come.

Taking into account that most of the world will not be capable of running their own semi conductor factories for decades to come, we can safely conclude that technologically most of the nation states of the world are more than a century behind the most technologically advanced nation states in the world.

In the past this wide a technological gap was easily enough for an empire to conquer neighboring empires without issue.

We can infer from the above that without the existence of nukes the US and China would be more than capable of conquering the rest of the planet through warfare.

China is about 30 years behind the US technologically. Which gives the US the technological edge if any non nuclear conflict were to break out between the US and China.

In conclusion:

The modern era is kept going by less than a dozen nation states, everybody else is living in their world.